Pattern of Population Growth in India: ISC Class 12 Geography

What Pattern of Population Growth is about

Weightage: CISCE publishes no chapter or unit weightage for ISC Geography. Pattern of Population Growth is part of 2. Population and Human settlements (iii) of the 2027 syllabus and can be asked anywhere in the 70-mark Paper I (Section A one-mark and map items, Section B 4-mark short answers, Section C 7-mark long answers).Source: CISCE ISC Geography (853) syllabus, examination year 2027; ISC 2027 specimen question paper

Key concepts

Key terms

1. Population: the total number of people living in an area at a given time.
2. Birth rate (crude birth rate, CBR): number of live births per 1,000 people in a year.
3. Death rate (crude death rate, CDR): number of deaths per 1,000 people in a year.
4. Natural growth rate: birth rate minus death rate, per 1,000 (or as a percentage). It ignores migration.
5. Migratory growth (net migration): the change in population caused by people moving in minus people moving out of an area.
6. Population growth rate: the change in population over a period, usually expressed as a percentage of the population at the start. In India the census gives the decadal growth rate.

Relationship: actual growth = natural growth + net migration. At the national level, international migration is small, so India's growth is almost entirely natural growth; at state or city level, migration can be the main cause (for example Delhi).

Worked example

[2] Distinguish between natural growth and migratory growth of population. (Understand)

Try it first, then show the solutionSolution

1. Natural growth: the difference between births and deaths in an area - 1 mark.
2. Migratory growth: the difference between in-migrants and out-migrants - 1 mark.

Answer: Natural growth is the increase in population due to the excess of births over deaths. Migratory growth is the change due to the difference between the number of people who move into an area and the number who move out of it.

Census population and decadal growth, 1901-2011

Population (million) and decadal growth rate (per cent):

• 1901: 238.4
• 1911: 252.1 (+5.75)
• 1921: 251.3 (-0.31)
• 1931: 279.0 (+11.00)
• 1941: 318.7 (+14.22)
• 1951: 361.1 (+13.31)
• 1961: 439.2 (+21.64)
• 1971: 548.2 (+24.80)
• 1981: 683.3 (+24.66)
• 1991: 846.4 (+23.87)
• 2001: 1,028.7 (+21.54)
• 2011: 1,210.9 (+17.70)

Observations:
1. 1911-1921 is the only decade in which India's population fell.
2. The highest decadal growth was in 1961-1971 (24.8 per cent).
3. Growth rates have fallen in every decade since 1981, and the fall in 2001-2011 was the sharpest.
4. Even with falling rates, the absolute addition stays huge (about 182 million in 2001-2011) because the base is large.

Worked example

[2] Name the only census decade in which India's population declined and the decade with the highest growth rate. (Recall)

Try it first, then show the solutionSolution

1. Decline: 1911-1921 (-0.31 per cent) - 1 mark.
2. Highest growth: 1961-1971 (24.8 per cent) - 1 mark.

Answer: India's population declined only in 1911-1921 (by 0.31 per cent), and the highest decadal growth rate, 24.8 per cent, was recorded in 1961-1971.

Four phases of growth and why 1921 is the great divide

Phase I, 1901-1921: stagnant or stationary growth. Both birth and death rates were very high. Famines, epidemics (plague, cholera, malaria and the influenza pandemic of 1918) and poor health care kept deaths high; the population actually fell in 1911-1921.

1921, the year of the great (demographic) divide: before 1921 growth was slow and irregular, even negative; after 1921 the population has risen in every decade. The death rate began a steady decline after 1921 because of better control of famines and epidemics, improved sanitation and transport, while the birth rate stayed high.

Phase II, 1921-1951: steady growth. Death rates fell with public health measures, better food distribution and transport; birth rates remained high. Growth averaged about 1 per cent a year.

Phase III, 1951-1981: rapid growth, the 'population explosion'. After Independence, planned development, rapid spread of medicine (antibiotics, vaccines, malaria control), and more food (Green Revolution) caused a steep fall in death rates, but birth rates fell only slowly. Decadal growth exceeded 21 per cent, and around 24-25 per cent in 1961-1981. Refugee inflows after Partition (1947) and from Bangladesh (1971) also added numbers.

Phase IV, 1981-2011: high but slowing growth. Birth rates fell steadily with rising literacy (especially of women), later marriage, urbanisation, family planning and better child survival. Decadal growth fell from 23.9 per cent (1981-91) to 17.7 per cent (2001-11).

Worked example

[4] Why is 1921 called the year of the great divide in India's population history? Give two reasons for the change after 1921. (Analyse)

Try it first, then show the solutionSolution

1. Before 1921 growth was slow and irregular; the population fell in 1911-1921 - 1 mark.
2. After 1921 the population has increased in every decade - 1 mark.
3. Reason: death rate began to fall with control of famines and epidemics - 1 mark.
4. Reason: better sanitation, health care and transport, while birth rates stayed high - 1 mark.

Answer: 1921 divides two different trends: before it, India's population grew slowly and irregularly and actually declined in 1911-1921 because of famines, epidemics and the 1918 influenza; after it, the population has grown in every decade. The change came because the death rate began to fall steadily after 1921, as famines and epidemics were brought under better control and sanitation, health care and transport improved, while the birth rate remained high.

Birth rate, death rate and natural growth rate, 1991-2011

Sample Registration System (SRS) estimates, per 1,000 population, for the census years:

• 1991: birth rate 29.5, death rate 9.8, natural growth rate 19.7
• 2001: birth rate 25.4, death rate 8.4, natural growth rate 17.0
• 2011: birth rate 21.8, death rate 7.1, natural growth rate 14.7

Trends:
1. Both rates fell, but the birth rate fell faster (about 7.7 points) than the death rate (about 2.7 points), so the natural growth rate fell from about 2 per cent to about 1.5 per cent a year.
2. The death rate is now low and cannot fall much further; future decline in growth depends on birth rates.

Reasons for the falling birth rate: spread of education, especially female literacy; later marriage; urbanisation and the cost of raising children; family welfare programmes and contraception; lower infant mortality, so families need fewer births.

Reasons for the falling death rate: better medical facilities and vaccination; control of epidemic diseases; improved nutrition and food security; safe drinking water and sanitation.

India is in the late part of the third stage of the demographic transition: low death rate, falling birth rate.

Worked example

[4] Describe the trends in birth rate, death rate and natural growth rate in India from 1991 to 2011, and give two reasons for the fall in the birth rate. (Analyse)

Try it first, then show the solutionSolution

1. Birth rate fell from about 29.5 to 21.8 per 1,000 - 1 mark.
2. Death rate fell from about 9.8 to 7.1, more slowly; natural growth fell from about 19.7 to 14.7 - 1 mark.
3. Reason: rising literacy, especially of women, and later marriage - 1 mark.
4. Reason: family planning, urbanisation and lower infant mortality - 1 mark.

Answer: Between 1991 and 2011 the birth rate fell from about 29.5 to 21.8 per 1,000 and the death rate from about 9.8 to 7.1, so the natural growth rate declined from about 19.7 to 14.7 per 1,000. The birth rate fell because of rising literacy, especially among women, and later marriage, and because family planning, urbanisation and lower infant mortality led families to want fewer children.

Impact of rapid growth and the need for planned development

Impact on economic development:
1. Lower per-capita income and savings: gains in national income are shared among more people.
2. Unemployment and underemployment: the labour force grows faster than jobs.
3. Pressure on food supply and agriculture: fragmentation of holdings, falling land per person.
4. Strain on infrastructure and services: housing, schools, hospitals, transport, water and power.
5. Government spending diverted from investment to basic needs.

Impact on the environment:
1. Deforestation for farmland, fuelwood and settlements.
2. Over-use and pollution of water; falling groundwater tables.
3. Soil degradation from over-cultivation and overgrazing.
4. Air pollution and waste in crowded cities; loss of biodiversity.

Need for planned development (to maintain ecological balance):
1. Population policies: family welfare, education of girls, maternal and child health.
2. Sustainable resource use: watershed management, afforestation, renewable energy.
3. Employment-oriented growth and skill development to turn numbers into a demographic dividend.
4. Planned urbanisation and regional development to reduce pressure on a few areas.

Worked example

[4] Explain two economic and two environmental effects of rapid population growth in India. (Understand)

Try it first, then show the solutionSolution

1. Economic: unemployment and underemployment - 1 mark.
2. Economic: low per-capita income and strain on services such as housing, health and education - 1 mark.
3. Environmental: deforestation and loss of biodiversity - 1 mark.
4. Environmental: over-use and pollution of water and soil; urban air pollution - 1 mark.

Answer: Economically, rapid growth creates unemployment and underemployment because the labour force grows faster than jobs, and it keeps per-capita income low while straining housing, health and education. Environmentally, it causes deforestation and loss of biodiversity as land is cleared, and leads to over-use and pollution of water and soil, along with air pollution in crowded cities.

Pattern of Population Growth in real life

Each concept, met in an everyday situation. Read the situation, answer the question in your own words, then compare with the model answer. The one-line hook is what to remember.

Topics in this chapter

• Population Growth Trends, Four Phases and Birth and Death Rates of India

Pattern of Population Growth: key facts

Birth rate / death rate

(Births or deaths in a year / mid-year population) x 1,000

Per 1,000 people.

Natural growth rate

Birth rate - death rate

2011 (SRS): 21.8 - 7.1 = 14.7 per 1,000.

Decadal growth rate

$(P2-P1)/P1x100$

2001-2011: 17.7 per cent.

Total growth

Natural growth + net migration (in-migrants - out-migrants)

Migration matters most at state and city level.

Phases

$1901-21stagnant;1921-51steady;1951-81explosive;1981-2011slowing$

1921 = year of the great divide.

How the board asks Pattern of Population Growth

The question patterns to expect, and the method that works for each.

Tricks to remember Pattern of Population Growth

Short memory aids. Say each one aloud once, then use it on a question the same day.

• Phases 'S-S-E-S'

  Stagnant (1901-21), Steady (1921-51), Explosive (1951-81), Slowing (1981-2011).

  Use it when: Four phases.

• Rates 29-25-22 / 10-8-7

  Birth rate roughly 29, 25, 22 and death rate roughly 10, 8, 7 for 1991, 2001, 2011.

  Use it when: Demographic characteristics 1991-2011.

• 1921: the only dip

  'Twenty-one, the population was done in': the 1911-21 decade fell by 0.31 per cent.

  Use it when: Great divide.

Pattern of Population Growth: board-level solved questions

Ordered from board level to HOTS. Cover the solution, write your own, then compare step by step.

Case-study practice (Section D style)

Read the situation, then answer every part. In the board paper this is a 7-mark question split into 2 + 1 + 2 + 2 marks.

Where the marks are

How a typical answer is split into step marks. Show every step: a right final answer alone rarely earns full marks.

Where students lose marks in Pattern of Population Growth

The slips examiners see most often, and what to write instead.

• ✗Mistake: Reading a rise as a decline on a transition graph

  CISCE examiners' comments, 2025, on the demographic-transition graph question: candidates 'Mistook the significant change as a decline in population and cited high death rates and lack of development'. The expected points were births exceeding deaths, better health and living conditions, development and a falling death rate, and in-migration.

  ✓Do this: Before answering, write one line on what the graph shows (population rising steeply), then give reasons for that.

  Usually costs: Both marks of the part.

• ✗Mistake: Explaining the decline before 1921 instead of the divide

  CISCE examiners' comments, 2025: on why 1921 is the year of the demographic divide, candidates 'Discussed a decrease in population factors rather than the divide' and 'Confused with part (i) and gave repetitive answers'.

  ✓Do this: Contrast before and after: slow or negative growth before 1921, continuous growth after it, and why deaths began to fall.

  Usually costs: 1-2 marks.

• ✗Mistake: Confusing natural growth rate with decadal growth rate

  Natural growth is births minus deaths per 1,000 per year; decadal growth is the percentage change in census totals over ten years.

  ✓Do this: Write the formula for each before using it.

  Usually costs: 1 mark.

• ✗Mistake: Saying population growth has stopped because the rate fell

  The rate fell, but the absolute addition remains very large.

  ✓Do this: Distinguish rate (17.7 per cent) from absolute increase (about 182 million).

  Usually costs: 1 mark in 'evaluate' answers.

Practice questions on Pattern of Population Growth

Write each answer on paper first. Open the hint only if you are stuck, and the answer only when you have finished.

1. Q1 · 1 mark · Very short answerBoard level

   Define birth rate.

   Hint

   Per 1,000.

   Answer

   The number of live births per 1,000 people in a year.

2. Q2 · 1 mark · Very short answerBoard level

   Which phase of India's population growth is called the population explosion?

   Hint

   After Independence.

   Answer

   1951-1981.

3. Q3 · 1 mark · Very short answerBoard level

   What was India's decadal growth rate in 2001-2011?

   Hint

   Below 18.

   Answer

   17.7 per cent.

4. Q4 · 1 mark · Very short answerHarder board level

   Why is migratory growth not important for India's growth at the national level?

   Hint

   International moves are few.

   Answer

   International migration into and out of India is very small relative to its population, so national growth is almost entirely natural growth.

5. Q5 · 2 marks · Short answerHarder board level

   [2] Why is the death rate unlikely to fall much below its present level, while the birth rate can?

   Hint

   Ageing population.

   Answer

   The death rate is already low and, as the population ages, more older people will die each year; the birth rate still has room to fall with education, urbanisation and family planning.

6. Q6 · 4 marks · Short answerHarder board level

   [4] Explain four factors responsible for the decline in the death rate in India after 1951.

   Hint

   Health, food, water, disease control.

   Answer

   (1) Spread of hospitals, primary health centres and modern medicines. (2) Vaccination and control of epidemics such as smallpox, malaria and cholera. (3) Better food supply after the Green Revolution and famine relief. (4) Safe drinking water, sanitation and health awareness.

7. Q7 · 4 marks · Short answerHOTS / competency

   [4] 'Rapid population growth slows economic development.' Do you agree? Give reasons.

   Hint

   Both sides, then judge.

   Answer

   Largely yes: rapid growth spreads income over more people, reduces savings, creates unemployment and diverts spending to basic needs. But a growing workforce and market can drive growth if people are educated, healthy and employed. So the effect depends on investment in human resources and jobs.

8. Q8 · 7 marks · Long answerHOTS / competency

   [7] (a) Explain the four phases of India's population growth from 1901 to 2011. [4]
   (b) Why is 1921 called the year of the great divide? [3]

   Hint

   S-S-E-S.

   Answer

   (a) 1901-1921, stagnant: high birth and death rates, famines and epidemics; decline in 1911-21. 1921-1951, steady: death rate began to fall, growth about 11-14 per cent a decade. 1951-1981, explosive: steep fall in deaths with modern medicine and food security, births still high, 21-25 per cent a decade. 1981-2011, high but slowing: birth rate declining with literacy, urbanisation and family planning; growth down to 17.7 per cent. (b) Before 1921 growth was slow, irregular and even negative; after 1921 the population has risen in every decade, because the death rate began a steady decline (control of famines and epidemics, better sanitation and transport) while the birth rate stayed high.

Test your recall

Answer in your head or on paper first, then open the card. Pulling an answer out of memory makes it stick far better than re-reading.

1. 1.Natural growth rate formula?Show answer

   Birth rate minus death rate.

2. 2.Year of the great divide?Show answer

   1921.

3. 3.Decade of highest growth?Show answer

   1961-1971 (24.8 per cent).

4. 4.Birth and death rates in 2011 (SRS)?Show answer

   About 21.8 and 7.1 per 1,000.

5. 5.Population in 1951 and 2011?Show answer

   361 million and 1,211 million.

Quick revision checklist

The night before the exam: can you do each of these without looking?

• ☐Natural growth = birth rate - death rate; total growth = natural + net migration.
• ☐1901-21 stagnant (decline 1911-21); 1921-51 steady; 1951-81 explosive; 1981-2011 slowing.
• ☐1921: great divide; deaths began to fall, population rose every decade after.
• ☐Highest decadal growth 1961-71 (24.8 per cent); 2001-11 17.7 per cent.
• ☐SRS: birth rate 29.5 to 21.8, death rate 9.8 to 7.1, natural growth 19.7 to 14.7 (1991-2011).
• ☐Impacts: unemployment, low per-capita income, strain on services; deforestation, water and soil degradation.
• ☐Planned development: population policy, education and health, sustainable resource use.

Pattern of Population Growth: frequently asked questions