GeographyISC Class 12 · Pattern of Population Growth

Growth Trends, Phases and Vital Rates of India's Population (ISC Class 12 Geography)

Updated 17 October 2026 · Fact-checked

India's population rose from 238.4 million in 1901 to 1,210.9 million (about 121 crore) in 2011. Growth was slow until 1921, the year of the great demographic divide, then steady to 1951, rapid in 1951-1981 and slowing since. Between 1991 and 2011 the birth rate fell from 29.5 to 21.8 and the death rate from 9.8 to 7.1 per 1,000, so natural growth fell from 19.7 to 14.7.

Understand Population Growth Trends, Four Phases and Birth and Death Rates of India

1. Terms. Population is the number of people living in an area at a given time. Birth rate is live births per 1,000 people in a year; death rate is deaths per 1,000 in a year. Natural growth rate is birth rate minus death rate. Migratory growth is the change from in-migrants minus out-migrants. Population growth rate is the change over a period as a percentage of the starting population (the census gives the decadal rate). Actual growth is natural growth plus net migration; nationally migration is small, so growth is almost wholly natural.

2. Census totals and decadal growth. In million (and per cent): 1901 238.4; 1911 252.1 (+5.75); 1921 251.3 (-0.31); 1931 279.0 (+11.00); 1941 318.7 (+14.22); 1951 361.1 (+13.31); 1961 439.2 (+21.64); 1971 548.2 (+24.80); 1981 683.3 (+24.66); 1991 846.4 (+23.87); 2001 1,028.7 (+21.54); 2011 1,210.9 (+17.70). The only decade of decline was 1911-1921; the highest growth was in 1961-1971 (24.8 per cent); the rate has fallen in every decade since 1981, and the fall in 2001-2011 was the sharpest, though the absolute addition (about 182 million) remains huge because the base is large.

3. Phase I, 1901-1921: stagnant. Birth and death rates were both very high. Famines and epidemics (plague, cholera, malaria and the influenza pandemic of 1918) kept deaths high, and the population fell in 1911-1921.

4. 1921, the great divide. Before 1921 growth was slow and irregular, even negative; after it the population has risen in every decade. The death rate began a steady fall as famines and epidemics were better controlled and sanitation and transport improved, while the birth rate stayed high.

5. Phase II, 1921-1951: steady growth. Death rates fell with public health measures, better food distribution and transport, but birth rates stayed high; growth averaged about 1 per cent a year.

6. Phase III, 1951-1981: rapid growth. After Independence, planned development, spread of medicine (antibiotics, vaccines, malaria control) and more food (the Green Revolution) cut the death rate steeply while the birth rate fell only slowly. Decadal growth exceeded 21 per cent, about 24 to 25 per cent in 1961-1981. Refugee inflows after Partition and from Bangladesh in 1971 added to the numbers.

7. Phase IV, 1981-2011: high but slowing. Birth rates fell with rising literacy (especially of women), later marriage, urbanisation, family planning and better child survival. Decadal growth fell from 23.9 per cent in 1981-91 to 17.7 per cent in 2001-11.

8. Vital rates (SRS, per 1,000). 1991: birth 29.5, death 9.8, natural growth 19.7. 2001: birth 25.4, death 8.4, natural growth 17.0. 2011: birth 21.8, death 7.1, natural growth 14.7. The birth rate fell faster (about 7.7 points) than the death rate (about 2.7 points), so natural growth fell from about 2 to about 1.5 per cent a year. India is in the late third stage of the demographic transition (low death rate, falling birth rate).

9. Impact of rapid growth. Economic: lower per-capita income and savings; unemployment and underemployment; pressure on food and fragmented holdings; strain on housing, schools, hospitals, transport, water and power; diversion of public spending to basic needs. Environmental: deforestation for farmland, fuelwood and settlements; over-use and pollution of water and falling groundwater tables; soil degradation; air pollution, waste and loss of biodiversity.

10. Need for planned development. Population policies (family welfare, girls' education, maternal and child health); sustainable use of resources (watershed management, afforestation, renewable energy); employment-oriented growth and skills to gain a demographic dividend; and planned urbanisation and regional development to ease pressure on a few areas.

Population Growth Trends, Four Phases and Birth and Death Rates of India: key facts

Natural growth rate: $B i r t h r a t e ∣ min u s d e a t h r a t e ∣ p er 1, 000∣2011 : 21.8 - 7.1 = 14.7$
Decadal growth rate: (P2 - P1)
divided by P1
multiplied by 100
2001-2011: 17.7%
Total growth: Natural growth
plus net migration
in-migrants minus out-migrants
Phases: $1901 - 21 s t a g nan t ∣1921 - 51 s t e a d y ∣1951 - 81 r a p i d ∣1981 - 2011 s l o w in g$
Vital rates 1991 to 2011: $B i r t h 29.5, 25.4, 21.8∣ D e a t h 9.8, 8.4, 7.1∣ N a t u r a l 19.7, 17.0, 14.7$

How to answer Population Growth Trends, Four Phases and Birth and Death Rates of India questions

For growth questions, anchor on the phase, the cause and the figure.

1Name the phase and its years.
2State what happened to birth and death rates in that phase.
3Give the causes (health, food, literacy, family planning).
4Quote one census figure with the unit.
5For calculations, write the formula, substitute, and state the answer with the unit.

Population Growth Trends, Four Phases and Birth and Death Rates of India in real life

The idea, met in an everyday situation. Answer the question in your own words, then compare with the model answer. The one-line hook is what to remember.

Reading a school census poster

Suppose a school poster shows a graph of India's census population, flat until 1921 and rising steeply afterwards, and a student asks why 1921 is highlighted.

Explain why 1921 is called the great divide, using death rate.

Try it first, then show the solutionSolution

Before 1921 famines and epidemics kept death rates high and growth was slow or negative.
After 1921 the death rate fell steadily, but the birth rate stayed high, so the population rose in every decade.

Answer: After 1921 deaths fell while births stayed high, so the population has grown in every decade.

Memory hook: 1921: the last decade of decline.

A family plan and falling births

Suppose a girl in a town finishes school, marries later and has fewer children than her grandmother, who had many, because most of the grandmother's children did not all survive early.

Link her choice to two reasons for the fall in India's birth rate.

Try it first, then show the solutionSolution

Girls' education and later marriage lower birth rates.
Better child survival means families need fewer births.

Answer: Female literacy and later marriage, and better child survival, lower the birth rate.

Memory hook: Educated girls, fewer births.

Tricks to remember Population Growth Trends, Four Phases and Birth and Death Rates of India

Short memory aids. Say each one aloud once, then use it on a question the same day.

Stagnant, Steady, Surge, Slow
Four S phases: 1901-21, 1921-51, 1951-81, 1981-2011.
Use it when: Phases of growth.
Death falls first
In India death rates fell before birth rates, giving the population explosion in 1951-81.
Use it when: Cause of rapid growth.
29.5, 25.4, 21.8
Birth rate down by about four points per decade; death rate down by about one.
Use it when: Vital rates.

Population Growth Trends, Four Phases and Birth and Death Rates of India: solved examples

Ordered from board level to HOTS. Try each one before you open the solution.

Example 1: Natural growth rate · 2 marks · Short answerBoard level

Using SRS data, birth rate 25.4 and death rate 8.4 per 1,000 in 2001, find the natural growth rate.

Try it first, then show the solutionSolution

Natural growth rate = birth rate - death rate.
25.4 - 8.4 = 17.0 per 1,000.

Answer: 17.0 per 1,000.

Example 2: Decadal growth · 3 marks · Short answerBoard level

India's population was 683.3 million in 1981 and 846.4 million in 1991. Calculate the decadal growth rate.

Try it first, then show the solutionSolution

Increase = 846.4 - 683.3 = 163.1 million.
Rate = 163.1 / 683.3 x 100 = 23.87 per cent (23.9 per cent, rounded).

Answer: About 23.9 per cent (the census gives 23.87).

Example 3: Year of the great divide · 4 marks · Long answerHarder board level

India's census population fell between 1911 and 1921 but has risen in every decade since. Name two causes of the high death rate before 1921 and two changes after 1921 that made the population grow continuously.

Try it first, then show the solutionSolution

Before 1921 the causes of high deaths were famines and epidemics (plague, cholera, malaria and the influenza pandemic of 1918).
After 1921 famines and epidemics were better controlled, reducing the death rate.
Sanitation and transport also improved while the birth rate stayed high, so the population rose in every decade.

Answer: Famines and epidemics (such as plague and the influenza of 1918) kept deaths high before 1921; better control of these and improved sanitation and transport lowered deaths afterwards, while births stayed high.

Example 4: Birth and death rate changes · 5 marks · Long answerHarder board level

Using the data for 1991 and 2011, calculate the fall in the birth rate and the death rate. Which fell faster? What happened to the natural growth rate, and what does it show about the stage of the demographic transition?

Try it first, then show the solutionSolution

Birth rate: 29.5 - 21.8 = 7.7 points.
Death rate: 9.8 - 7.1 = 2.7 points; the birth rate fell faster.
Natural growth: 19.7 in 1991 and 14.7 in 2011, a fall of 5.0 points.
Low death rate and falling birth rate show that India is in the late third stage of the demographic transition.

Answer: Birth rate fell 7.7 and death rate 2.7 points; natural growth fell from 19.7 to 14.7; late third stage of the transition.

Example 5: Assess a policy argument · 5 marks · Long answerHOTS / competency

Case: A speaker says, 'The growth rate has fallen from 24.8 per cent (1961-71) to 17.7 per cent (2001-11), so population is no longer a worry.' (a) Give one fact from the chapter that contradicts her. (b) Name two environmental effects of rapid growth. (c) Name two measures of planned development.

Try it first, then show the solutionSolution

(a) The absolute addition in 2001-2011 was still about 182 million because the base is very large.
(b) Deforestation and falling groundwater tables; also soil degradation, pollution and loss of biodiversity.
(c) Education of girls and family welfare; watershed management and afforestation; employment-oriented growth.

Answer: (a) About 182 million were still added (b) deforestation and falling water tables (c) girls' education and afforestation, for example.

Where students lose marks in Population Growth Trends, Four Phases and Birth and Death Rates of India

The slips examiners see most often, and what to write instead.

Mistake: Subtracting rates in the wrong direction
Death rate minus birth rate.
Wrong working
7.1 - 21.8 = -14.7
Right working
21.8 - 7.1 = 14.7 per 1,000
Do this: Natural growth is birth minus death.
Usually costs: 1 mark.
Mistake: Stating that growth fell because the population fell
The growth rate fell but the population still rises.
Do this: Write that the rate slowed while about 182 million were still added in 2001-2011.
Usually costs: 1 mark.
Mistake: Giving 1921 as the year of declining births
1921 marks the start of the fall in death rates.
Do this: Link 1921 to the death rate and the start of continuous growth.
Usually costs: 1 mark.
Mistake: Treating migration as a main national cause
At national level growth is almost entirely natural.
Do this: Say migration matters at state and city level.
Usually costs: 1 mark.

Exam tips

Learn the three census year pairs: 1921, 1951 and 1981 as turning points.
Quote vital rates per 1,000 with the year.
Write formula, substitution and unit for calculations.
Keep this topic to the national level, as the syllabus states.

Practice questions on Population Growth Trends, Four Phases and Birth and Death Rates of India

Write each answer on paper first. Open the hint only if you are stuck, and the answer only when you have finished.

Q1 · 1 mark · MCQBoard level
The only decade in which India's population declined was:
(a) 1901-1911
(b) 1911-1921
(c) 1921-1931
(d) 1941-1951
Hint
Influenza of 1918.
Answer
(b) 1911-1921.
Q2 · 3 marks · Short answerHarder board level
Invented figures: a town's population was 2,40,000 in the earlier census and 2,76,000 in the next. Out of the increase, 24,000 were due to births exceeding deaths and the rest to net migration. Find the decadal growth rate, the natural increase and the net migration.
Hint
Total growth equals natural plus migration.
Answer
Increase = 36,000; rate = 36,000 / 240,000 x 100 = 15 per cent. Natural increase 24,000; net migration = 36,000 - 24,000 = 12,000.
Q3 · 4 marks · Long answerHarder board level
Describe Phase III (1951-1981) of India's population growth: its other name, the cause of the rapid growth and two additional factors.
Hint
Death rate fell faster than birth rate.
Answer
Rapid growth or the population explosion. Planned development, spread of medicine and more food (Green Revolution) cut the death rate steeply while the birth rate fell slowly, with decadal growth of 24-25 per cent in 1961-1981. Refugee inflows after Partition and from Bangladesh in 1971 added to the numbers.
Q4 · 4 marks · Long answerHarder board level
Explain four reasons for the decline of the birth rate in India in recent decades.
Hint
Literacy, marriage age, urbanisation, family planning.
Answer
Spread of education especially female literacy, later marriage, urbanisation with higher cost of children, family welfare programmes and contraception, and lower infant mortality so families need fewer births.
Q5 · 4 marks · Long answerHOTS / competency
A graph of demographic transition in India shows a clear change at one point between 1901 and 2011. (a) Identify the year, (b) state what changes in the death rate and birth rate, (c) explain why the population growth rate rises soon after.
Hint
The great divide.
Answer
(a) 1921. (b) The death rate begins to fall steadily while the birth rate stays high. (c) The gap between births and deaths widens, so natural growth and the population growth rate rise.

Test your recall

Answer in your head or on paper first, then open the card. Pulling an answer out of memory makes it stick far better than re-reading.

1.India's population in 1901?Show answer
238.4 million.
2.Decade of highest growth?Show answer
1961-1971, 24.8 per cent.
3.Natural growth rate in 2011 (SRS)?Show answer
14.7 per 1,000.
4.Which year is the great demographic divide?Show answer
1921.
5.Formula of natural growth rate?Show answer
Birth rate minus death rate.

Population Growth Trends, Four Phases and Birth and Death Rates of India: frequently asked questions

Why did death rates fall before birth rates?

Medicine, sanitation and food spread quickly, while family-size habits change slowly.

What is migratory growth?

The change in population caused by in-migrants minus out-migrants.

Which phase is called the population explosion?

1951-1981.

Why is population still growing though the rate is falling?

The base is very large, so even a lower rate adds many people.